Police warn Sikh activist of threat as Carney eyes India trip

Police just handed another Sikh activist a stark warning about threats to their life. And wouldn’t you know it – this happens right as Mark Carney drops news about his India trip plans. The timing? Pretty hard to ignore.

This keeps happening. Same pattern we’ve been seeing since Hardeep Singh Nijjar got gunned down back in June 2023.

Another Day, Another Death Threat

January 15th.

That’s when law enforcement showed up to tell this activist their life might be in danger. Again. The RCMP’s been doing these check-ins a lot more over the past 14 months, especially if you’re involved in Sikh advocacy stuff.

What kind of threat? Police won’t say. Where it’s coming from? Also won’t say. But here’s the thing – this warning came just 72 hours before Carney announced his India plans.

This activist (they’re keeping the name under wraps for obvious reasons) is number 17. Seventeen Sikh community members have gotten these warnings since October 2023.

Same drill every time: RCMP officers show up at your house or work, deliver the bad news face to face.

We take all credible threats seriously and conduct thorough assessments based on intelligence we receive. Our primary concern is always the safety of Canadian citizens and residents, regardless of their political affiliations or advocacy work.

That’s RCMP Assistant Commissioner Matt Peggs talking. He runs national security operations in BC and says they’ve thrown an extra $12 million at threat assessment work since this whole diplomatic mess started.

The activist’s name isn’t public, but word is they’re connected to Khalistan independence advocacy. That’s become the big sticking point between Canada and India – India sees it as supporting terrorism, Canada calls it legitimate political speech.

Carney’s Timing Couldn’t Be Worse

What This Means Going Forward

So Mark Carney wants to visit India. February 8-14, he says. Going there for “economic discussions and trade opportunities exploration.”

Here’s what makes this weird (which, honestly, nobody saw coming). Official diplomatic channels between Canada and India are basically frozen solid. The last high-level visit got canned back in September 2023.

These two countries have been giving each other the cold shoulder since Trudeau pointed fingers at Indian agents over Nijjar’s murder outside that Surrey gurdwara. India keeps saying that’s “preposterous” nonsense.

This is about exploring economic opportunities that benefit working families in both countries. Canada and India have built important trade relationships worth over $8 billion annually, and we can’t let political tensions completely derail the economic benefits for ordinary people.

Carney said that at a Toronto press conference on January 16th. But critics aren’t buying it. Conservative MP Michael Chong called the visit “tone deaf” and pointed out something pretty stark – India kicked out six Canadian diplomats in October 2024. That left Canada with just 21 staff members in India, down from 62 in early 2023.

Think about that for a second.

The Warning Pattern Gets Worse

This isn’t some one-off thing (and that’s putting it mildly). Police have dropped similar warnings on at least 23 Sikh activists across Canada in the past 18 months. Got those numbers from access to information requests.

Here’s how it works: RCMP officers show up and tell you intelligence suggests someone might want to hurt you.

Sometimes they’ll say change up your routine, don’t go to certain places, be careful. That kind of thing.

Where’s this happening? BC got hit with 12 warnings, Ontario had 7, Alberta got 3, Manitoba had 1. Surrey alone – that’s where they killed Nijjar – accounts for 8 of them.

Moninder Singh lives in Surrey and does activist work. He got his first warning in November 2023. “They told me to be careful, watch my surroundings, maybe don’t go to certain public events,” he said.

“It’s not something you expect to hear in Canada, especially not multiple times.”

Multiple times is right.

Singh’s gotten three separate threat assessments since then. Most recent one came in December 2024. Each time, RCMP officers give slightly different advice but the core message stays the same: credible intelligence says your safety’s at risk.

This stuff’s really messing with people’s heads. The World Sikh Organization of Canada did a survey in December 2024. Found that 67% of respondents changed their daily routines because of security worries. And 43% said they’d pulled back from community advocacy work.

The Nijjar Case Goes Nowhere

Let’s talk about what started all this. June 18, 2023. Hardeep Singh Nijjar, 45-year-old Sikh activist and Canadian citizen, got shot dead outside the Guru Nanak Sikh Gurdwara in Surrey. 8:27 PM. Two masked gunmen.

Then Trudeau dropped his bombshell on September 18, 2023. Said Indian government agents were involved. Within 48 hours, both countries started kicking out each other’s diplomats. $2.8 billion in planned trade talks? Gone.

This investigation’s costing Canadian taxpayers about $18 million so far. That’s from RCMP budget documents. They’ve got a joint task force with 47 investigators from RCMP, CSIS, and local police working the case.

India keeps calling Canada’s allegations “baseless.” They say Canada’s harboring what they call “Khalistani terrorists.” In December 2024, India’s Ministry of External Affairs claimed Canada’s protecting “over 40 individuals on India’s most-wanted list.”

The RCMP says the investigation’s still active. They’ve done more than 300 interviews, analyzed over 1,000 pieces of evidence. But no charges. No arrests. The Sikh community’s getting frustrated.

What This Costs Everyone

The numbers tell the story. Canada’s got about 771,790 Sikh people according to the 2021 census. That’s roughly 1.9% of the total population. Most live in BC (372,490) and Ontario (397,865).

Two-way trade between Canada and India hit $8.4 billion in 2022. By 2023? Down to $6.9 billion. Canadian exports to India dropped 28% over the same period. Canadian businesses lost an estimated $420 million.

Agriculture got hammered. Canola exports to India went from $186 million in 2022 to just $47 million in 2023. Pulse exports fell from $278 million to $156 million.

Then there’s education. Indian students are the biggest group of international students in Canada – 319,130 study permits issued to Indian nationals in 2023.

These students pump about $7.1 billion annually into the Canadian economy through tuition and living expenses.

“We’re walking a tightrope,” said one senior government official who didn’t want their name used. “We can’t compromise on the safety of Canadians or our democratic values, but we also can’t let this completely derail our relationship with India.”

Communities Under Pressure

For Canada’s Sikh community, this whole thing’s taking a real toll. Gurdwaras across the country have bumped up security spending by an average of $23,000 per facility since 2023.

The Guru Nanak Sikh Gurdwara in Surrey – where Nijjar got killed – now pays for four full-time security guards. That’s $180,000 a year. Before this, they used volunteers for security.

Community events that used to draw thousands are seeing attendance down 30-40%. The annual Vaisakhi parade in Vancouver typically gets over 500,000 people. In 2024? About 350,000 showed up.

“It’s created a climate of fear that’s affecting every aspect of community life,” said Balpreet Singh, legal counsel for the World Sikh Organization of Canada. “People are worried about speaking out on issues they care about, worried about attending religious events, worried about their children’s safety.”

The community’s split on how to handle this. Some leaders want to dial down advocacy work to avoid more tensions. Others say backing down means letting threats win against democratic rights.

A December 2024 survey of 1,247 Sikh-Canadians showed the split: 52% said advocacy work should continue despite security risks. 48% said community safety should come first over political activism.

What’s Next for Everyone Else

This mess goes way beyond the Sikh community. It’s raised big questions about whether Canada can protect diaspora communities from foreign interference while keeping important international relationships intact.

CSIS bumped up its foreign interference investigation budget by 67% since 2023. From $89 million to $149 million annually. They’ve hired 124 additional analysts and investigators just to handle threats against diaspora communities.

Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc announced in December 2024 that the government would spend another $49.5 million over three years on a new “Diaspora Protection Program.” That’s designed to help at-risk community members.

Canadian law enforcement’s been working with community leaders to deal with security concerns and keep communication open. The RCMP’s done 127 community outreach sessions since this crisis started, reaching about 18,000 community members.

Immigration patterns are shifting too. Applications for Canadian permanent residence from Indian nationals dropped 22% in 2024 compared to 2023. But refugee claims citing political persecution jumped 89%.

Everyone’s going to watch Carney’s visit closely. Could be an unofficial test of whether diplomatic relations can be fixed. His schedule includes business leader meetings in Mumbai and New Delhi, but no confirmed government meetings.

If the visit works out and produces real economic deals, might signal relations could thaw. If it doesn’t, or if more threats pop up while he’s there, this already complicated mess gets messier.

It’s costing both countries money and hurting Canada’s multicultural reputation internationally.

Don’t expect this to get sorted out anytime soon. But the stakes keep climbing for everyone involved.